Estimation of return period of the destructive earthquake in aceh using the maximum likelihood method

11th Aceh International Workshop and Expo on Sustainable Tsunami Disaster Recovery

Jumila^1 ; Sofyan, H.^1 ; Rahayu, L.^1

Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh, Indonesia^1

关键词: Disaster mitigation;    Earthquake catalogues;    Earthquake events;    Maximum likelihood methods;    Moment magnitudes;    North latitudes;    Seismic parameters;    Surrounding regions;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/273/1/012024/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/273/1/012024

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Aceh is one of the provinces in Sumatra Island which coincides with the meeting of the Eurasian plate and the Indo-Australian plate. The negative impact of the plate meeting is the occurrence of an earthquake. The earthquakes that occurred in this region have caused various losses including casualties. Therefore, estimates of earthquake events are required for disaster mitigation caused by earthquakes. In this research the period of earthquake reoccurring in Aceh and Surrounding region using the relation between frequency and magnitude of earthquake known as Gutenberg-Richter relationship. The maximum likelihood method is used to determine the seismic parameters obtained from the relationship. The data used ware sourced from the USGS earthquake catalogue (1907-2008) and the BMKG earthquake catalogue (2009-2017) with minimum depth is 80 Km that coincides at 92 ° - 98.5 ° East Longitude and 0 ° - 8 ° North latitude. The obtained magnitude data were converted to the moment magnitude (Mw), then selected data that have a minimum Magnitude (Mw) of 5 which is a destructive earthquake. The results obtained from this study are the period of the destructive earthquake (Mw ≥ 5) is expected to re-occur in 19.7 years in the sea region between Aceh Barat Daya and Simeulue.