Model of Demographic Processes Management in Russia on the Basis of Statistical Factors of Fertility

International science and technology conference "Earth science"

Mazurmovich, O.^1 ; Scryleva, D.^2

Samara University, Moskovskoe shosse 34, Samara

443086, Russia^1

Samara State University of Economics, Soviet Army 141, Samara

443090, Russia^2

关键词: Fisher criterion;    General systems;    Method of least squares;    Model-based OPC;    Russian federation;    Socio-economic development;    Statistical modeling;    Statistical study;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/272/3/032184/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/272/3/032184

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Statistical study of the level and dynamics of the birth rate of the population occupies an important place in the analysis of the socio-economic development of society. The task is to study the influence of certain factors on the level of fertility in the Russian Federation, by building a statistical model based on the example of the subjects of the Russian Federation for 2016. On the basis of the general system of indicators, a private one is formed, which, in our opinion, most objectively reflects the variation of the feature and, taking into account the analysis made for the existence of multicollience, a model based on the method of least squares has been developed. The analysis was carried out by estimating the coefficients and selecting the significant factors. The significance of the model as a whole is verified using the Fisher criterion. Thus, the analysis of the relationship between the birth rate, revealed the factors that most influenced it and formed a model in accordance with which it will be possible to plan the development of the social sphere.