Probabilistic Approach to the Effect of Climate Change in the Meliorated Areas of Russia's European Part

International science and technology conference "Earth science"

Cheremisinov, A.Y.^1 ; Lomakin, S.V.^1 ; Cheremisinov, A.A.^1

Dept. of Melioration, Water Supp. and Geodesy of Fed. State Budgetary Inst. of the Higher Education, Voronezh State Agricultural University of the Emperor Peter i, Russia^1

关键词: Agricultural landscapes;    Agricultural plants;    Anthropogenic systems;    Climate characteristics;    Climate-related effects;    Historical weather datum;    Probabilistic approaches;    Self-organizing systems;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/272/2/022216/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/272/2/022216

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Meliorated (enhanced) agricultural landscapes represent an evolution of traditional agricultural landscapes. They are based on nature-like nature environmental-engineering technologies. They are generally complex natural-anthropogenic systems structurally consisting of dynamic components such as climate, soils, water sources, and agricultural plants. From the standpoint of synergetics, each component is an open, non-linear (multivariant and irreversible), non-equilibrium self-organizing system. Climate characteristics are prone to the most drastic change while being of utmost importance for agriculture. Many scientists have found that climate is changing towards warming. In general, climate is a self-organizing system featuring considerable weather fluctuations while staying integral and able to exist in different variants. It is therefore extremely important to study such fluctuations as well as general climate change in different regions. It is this climate change that directly affects different aspects of regional economy. Of special interest are the forecasts of climate-related effects on meliorated land. Today's weather forecasts are reliable within 5 days. This is why it is proposed to base forecasts on a probabilistic approach. Perennial historical weather data can be used to calculate and evaluate possible developments. Having a wide range of development computations, one can analyze these situations for other economic (economy-, environment-, or technology-related) purposes to choose the best option. Probabilistic research into the need for meliorated land in the European part of the Russian Federation has been carried out under a Grant of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation (2017). We have developed various options for crop farming in the meliorated areas of European Russia for various climates (hot, normal, and mild climates; dry, normal, and humid climates). This approach can be used to generate other options or any combination thereof.