Improved time series electricity sales forecast based on economic prosperity method

2019 3rd International Workshop on Renewable Energy and Development

能源学;生态环境科学

Yang, Zhilong^1 ; Liu, Yaming^1 ; Wu, Guanghua^2 ; Li, Xuejun^1 ; Xu, Qinghua^1

State Grid Hebei Electric Power Co., Ltd. Handan Power Supply Branch, Handan City, Heibei Province

056000, China^1

State Grid Hebei Electric Power Co., Ltd. Electric Power Research Institute, Shijiazhuang City, Hebei Province

050011, China^2

关键词: Economic indexes;    Economic prosperity;    Electricity sales;    Electricity usage;    Electricity-consumption;    National grid systems;    Potential values;    Time series method;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/267/6/062042/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/267/6/062042

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

With the construction of smart grids, a large amount of equipment operating data and power consumption data have been accumulated in the national grid system. However, these data have not been fully utilized nor has their potential value been exerted. Based on the customer's historical electricity consumption data, this paper analyzes the customer's electricity usage behavior from different dimensions, and predicts the sales of electricity in different dimensions, which is used as a supplement to customer category information such as customer industry, electricity properties, scale and voltage level. This will help with refined management. In this paper, the gray model and time series method are used to predict the sales of electricity. Combined with the economic index analysis method and the adjustment of holiday factors, the forecast results of electricity sales are revised.