On centenary climate evolution in the circumpolar region from the bifurcation analysis viewpoint

Arctic Biomonitoring

Kolokolov, Y.^1 ; Monovskaya, A.^1 ; Lagunov, A.^2

Department of CDIO Technologies, Orel State University Named after I. S. Turgenev, 95 Komsomolskaya, Orel

302026, Russia^1

Fundamental and Applied Physics Department, Northern (Arctic) Federal University Named after M.V. Lomonosov, 17 Severnaya Dvina Emb., Arkhangelsk

163002, Russia^2

关键词: Bifurcation analysis;    Bifurcation boundary;    Bifurcation diagram;    Circumpolar regions;    Conflict free;    Local climate;    Qualitative changes;    Stability margins;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/263/1/012013/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/263/1/012013

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The paper presents the bifurcation analysis viewpoint on the local climate dynamics by the example of the data observed in the circumpolar region of the European part of Russia. With this purpose we turn to the integrating analytics in order to realize the idea, in accordance to which the notion of a "stability margin" is used as a distance to a bifurcation boundary under adjusted conditions. The peculiarity of the integrating analytics consists in building various modified bifurcation diagrams which are originally intended to integrate traditionally incompatible spaces and images without losses and distortions of the necessary cause-effect relations. So, such modified bifurcation diagrams are free from the restrictions inherent to the classical bifurcation diagrams. Following the stability margin idea, we show that images of dynamics evolution can be conflict-free estimated in relation to images of the boundaries, about which the prerequisites of qualitative changes of the habitual dynamics can appear. Since this method opens fundamentally other viewpoint on the local evolution, then we believe that the paper could be interesting for scientists and specialists, activity areas of which relate to the contemporary challenges connected with climate changes.