The development of Articulated Weather Generator model and its application in simulating future climate variability

2nd International Conference on Environmental Resources Management in Global Region

生态环境科学

Sekaranom, A.B.^1^2 ; Nurjani, E.^1

Graduate School of Earth and Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Japan^1

Faculty of Geography, Universitas Gadjah, Mada Yogyakarta, Indonesia^2

关键词: Agricultural areas;    General circulation model;    Internal structure;    Markov chain models;    Model performance;    Prediction systems;    Seasonal climate prediction;    Weather generator;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/256/1/012044/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/256/1/012044

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Major areas over global tropics are vulnerable to the effects of climate change, particularly due to the high population and wide agricultural areas. The impacts of climate change have been predicted to affect higher number of hydrometeorological disasters. Over some areas, it is predicted to generate severe droughts and floods. In relation to the above issue, software called 'Articulated Weather Generator for Seasonal Climate Prediction' (AWGenSCP) has been developed to simulate the daily weather condition for the leading 6-8 months. This paper is intended to briefly explain the internal structure of the AWGenSCP algorithms. Basically, the program is a statistical medium range prediction system which is developed based on markov chain models. In addition to the general model, an articulation scheme was developed and implemented in the systems by utilizing General Circulation Model (GCM) output. This provides ability in simulating the following next seasonal condition, particularly in term of precipitation and temperature. A sample validation of the model is presented in the paper to show the model performance.