Model for Measuring Country's Fragility under the Influence of Climate Changes

2018 4th International Conference on Environmental Science and Material Application

生态环境科学;材料科学

Chen, Kewei^1

North China Electric Power University, Baoding, China^1

关键词: Calculation formula;    Continuous development;    Environmental change;    Fragility assessment;    Intervention methods;    Intervention programs;    Optimization method;    Population pressure;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/252/4/042008/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/252/4/042008

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

With continuous development and progress of human society, the global environment is also undergoing tremendous changes. These environment changes bring us a profound change in both human production and way of life, and even lead to the collapse of a country's government with poor governance capacity. Environmental change has become a worldwide problem. Therefore, this article established a model to measure a country's fragility and the impact of climate changes on fragility, and by applying improved models intervention, plans were put forward to mitigate the risks posed to a country by climate change. To begin with, based on the improved AHP, the article proposed basic model. By using principal component analysis, the article selected the two most representative of the three main categories that affect national vulnerability respectively: safety equipment, economy, public services, population pressure precipitation and temperature. Then, the weight of each factor was figured out and the calculation formula of fragility index was got. However, weights based on expert evaluations have been found to be too subjective. Therefore, an improved model was established, which changed the parameter judgment matrix to the interval judgment matrix, thus greatly reduced the subjectivity of the model. By analyzing the top 60 countries in the 2017 Fragile Country Index, a new formula for calculating the Vulnerability Index was found, and the Fragility Assessment Interval was divided. Next, the article applied the model to specific countries to analyze how climate changes affect a country's fragility and it designed intervention programs for countries to mitigate the risks posed by climate change. Firstly, Somalia was chosen from the ten most vulnerable countries. And we drew the conclusion that Somalia's fragility index would rise year by year because of the worsening climate and might even surpass South Sudan, the most fragile country released by the Fond for Peace in 2017, becoming the theoretically most fragile country only 8 years later. Secondly, seven feasible intervention plans and the cost of implementing each intervention method was proposed. In North Korea, for example, the article calculated the minimum cost by using the optimization method.