General Aviation Airport Aviation Fuel Consumption Forecast

4th International Conference on Energy Equipment Science and Engineering

Yan, Xian^1 ; Jian, Chen^1

Xinjin Flight College of Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Chengdu, Sichuan

611431, China^1

关键词: Combination forecast models;    Elasticity coefficients;    Extrapolation methods;    General aviation;    GM (1 , 1) model;    Relative weights;    Safety and securities;    Security management;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/242/3/032035/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/242/3/032035

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

In order to accurately predict the aviation fuel consumption of general aviation airport, this article analyzes Xinjin Airport's aviation fuel consumption over the years, using elasticity coefficient method, trend extrapolation method and grey theory prediction GM(1,1) model to forecast Xinjin Airport's fuel consumption in the next five years. To avoid the loss of information in a single model, a combination forecast model is established based on the three models. The weight of each model is determined based on the relative weight of the error of each model. The results show that the combined model can more accurately and effectively predict the airport aviation fuel consumption. It can provide reference and basis for the construction and planning of fuel facilities and equipment for general aviation airports, and the storage and security management of aviation fuel materials, and has certain practical significance for improving aviation fuel safety and security in the navigation industry.