Accident Prediction of Special Equipment in China Based on Grey Markov Model

4th International Conference on Energy Equipment Science and Engineering

Ding, Kun^1 ; Tao, Gang^1 ; Zhang, Lijing^1

College of Safety Science and Engineering, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing

210009, China^1

关键词: Accident prediction;    Accurate prediction;    Development trends;    GM (1 , 1) model;    Grey prediction;    Grey-Markov chain model;    grey-Markov models;    Prediction accuracy;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/242/3/032007/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/242/3/032007

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Based on the grey prediction of special equipment accident, Grey Markov model for accident prediction of special equipment is established by combining the Grey model with Markov chain, which can not only have the features of playing the accurate prediction of the grey system, but also have the advantage of using the Markov chain to accurately predict the volatility data. Based on the data of the incidents of special equipment accidents in China from 2006 to 2017, the prediction accuracy of the model is verified. The example calculation shows that the prediction accuracy of the grey Markov chain model for special equipment accidents is higher than that of the GM (1, 1) model, which can be used to predict the development trend of special equipment accidents in China.