Evolution model of power failure considering new energy uncertainty

4th International Conference on Advances in Energy Resources and Environment Engineering

能源学;生态环境科学

Fan, Changjian^1 ; Yu, Qun^1

College of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, Shandong

266590, China^1

关键词: Evolution modeling;    Interconnected power grid;    Multi scenarios;    New energies;    Photovoltaic power generation;    Power failure;    Sequential Monte Carlo;    Sequential Monte Carlo methods;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/237/6/062042/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/237/6/062042

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

In order to explore the impact of new energy uncertainty on power failure and the choice of new energy buses in interconnected power grid, evolution model of non-sequential Monte-Carlo power failure is proposed. Assessment of power failure risk in interconnected power grid under multi-scenario is proposed to study the access of new energy. Firstly, the model of the uncertainty of wind power and photovoltaic power generation is set. Secondly, the non-sequential Monte-Carlo method is used to obtain the output of new energy, and a power failure evolution model is established based on SOC-Power Failure model. Finally, doing power failure evolution simulation in IEEE118 grid by this model in different scenario, the RISK value is obtained by integrating the LOLP, ELOL and EPFB indicators by AHP method, and the best access scenarios of new energy are determined by RISK value. The scenarios of new energy with the lowest power failure risk and the weak lines in the power grid are verified, which verifies the feasibility of the model and the practicability of the multi-scenario simulation.