Research on a Model of Oil Production Forecast Based on Technical Development and Dynamic Change of Reserves

4th International Conference on Advances in Energy Resources and Environment Engineering

能源学;生态环境科学

Yi, Jiexin^1 ; Tan, Kun^2 ; Peng, Yun^1 ; Wu, Jian^3 ; Li, Jia^1 ; Wang, Kai^1

Department of Overseas Strategy and Development Planning Research, Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, 100083, China^1

Beijing Richfit Information Technology CO. LTD., CNPC, 100007, China^2

School of Environment, Tsinghua University, 100084, China^3

关键词: Drilling technology;    Forecast systems;    Production forecasts;    Seismic technology;    Technical development;    Technical models;    Technical progress;    World oil production;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/237/4/042024/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/237/4/042024

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The Hubbert model is widely used in forecasting the oil production. However, many scholars compared the history data to the data calculated by Hubbert model and got the conclusion that the Hubbert model was not suitable for forecasting oil production. In this paper, the Hubbert model is modified and the technical progress is considered in the model. An oil production forecast system is presented, which can be used to analyze the technical progress and dynamic change of reserves. This forecast system is decomposed into three models, namely the technical model, dynamic reserves model and production forecast model. The purpose of this paper is to show the powerful effect of technical progress and dynamic reserves on oil production. It is an innovative view that less research focus on this side. Furthermore, seismic technology, exploration theory, drilling technology and oil production technology are considered in technical model. These models are used to forecast world oil production from 2018 to 2030.