A Study on the Calculation Method for the Coverage Rate of Early Warning Release

2018 International Conference on Construction, Aviation and Environmental Engineering

生态环境科学;生物科学

Cao, Zhiyu^1^3^4 ; Feng, Yuxing^1 ; Li, Xiao^2

National Early Warning Center, Beijing

100081, China^1

School of Mathematics, Shandong University, Jinan Shandong

250100, China^2

NO.46, South ZhongGuancun Street, Haidian district, Beijing, China^3

National Key RandD Program of China, China^4

关键词: Calculation accuracy;    Calculation models;    Coverage rate;    Early warning;    Inclusion exclusion principle;    Three-level;    Value methods;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/233/5/052034/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/233/5/052034

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The coverage rate of early warning release is an important indicator of early warning releasing capacity. How to calculate the coverage rate of early warning in a certain area objectively and reasonably plays an important role in evaluating the effectiveness of early warning releasing. This paper analyzes the principle and components of the coverage rate calculation for early warning releasing, and puts forward three combination calculation methods. They are inclusion-exclusion principle, method of weighting and maximum value method. This paper also analyzes the differences between the three methods in calculation feasibility, calculation accuracy and rationality of the results, so as to confirm that the relative best method for calculating the coverage rate of early warning is maximum value method. Finally, combined with the characteristics of China's early warning release system and administrative regionalization, the paper further proposes national, provincial and municipal three level calculation models of early warning releasing coverage rate, and provides a calculation example, and discusses the enlightenment to improve the early warning releasing capacity.