Interannual globally synchronized variations in the climate system and their predictability

Turbulence, Atmosphere and Climate Dynamics

生态环境科学

Serykh, I.V.^1 ; Sonechkin, D.M.^1 ; Vakulenko, N.V.^1

Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Nahimovskiy prospekt 36, Moscow

117997, Russia^1

关键词: Atmospheric oscillations;    Climate system;    Climatic variation;    Cross-correlations;    El Nino southern oscillation;    Extratropical;    Interannual;    Time-scales;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/231/1/012046/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/231/1/012046

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The predictability of the widely known phenomenon of El Nino is investigated. For this, the recently found Global Atmospheric Oscillation (GAO) is considered as the main mode of the short-term climatic variations because GAO includes the El Nino - Southern Oscillation process within itself. Three indices characterizing dynamics and interrelation of the extratropical and tropical components of GAO are defined. Among these indices there is one by means of which it is possible to predict El Nino with the lead time of about one year. Generally, it is more, than the lead times of present day hydrodynamical and statistical methods of the El Nino successful forecasting. Then, by means of wavelets, a range of time scales is cleared up in which the closest crosscorrelations exist of this index with an index characterizing El Nino itself.