Quantitative analysis and scenario prediction of energy-consumption carbon emissions in urban agglomerations in China: Case of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

3rd International Conference on Energy Engineering and Environmental Protection

能源学;生态环境科学

Yu, Min^1 ; Liu, Fuyan^1 ; Shu, Mengdi^2 ; Liu, Jinpeng^2 ; Chen, Chao^2

Economic and Technological Research Institute, State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Corporation, Hangzhou

310000, China^1

School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing

102206, China^2

关键词: Beijing-tianjin-hebei regions;    BP neural network model;    Carbon emission intensities;    Carbon emission reductions;    Comparative analysis;    Economic development;    Key influencing factors;    Urban agglomerations;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/227/6/062042/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1755-1315/227/6/062042

学科分类：环境科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

China's economy has entered a period of new normal, which brings an opportunity for the development of a green and low-carbon economy and environmental protection. In order to solve the contradiction between economic development and environmental protection in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Chinese government decided to adjust and optimize the urban layout and spatial structure of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Therefore, it is imperative to systematically analyse the factors affecting energy-consumption carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region to explore the relationship between factors and carbon emission intensity. This paper determined the influencing factors and conducted a systematic comparative analysis on energy-consumption carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Combined with BP neural network model, scenario prediction of energy-consumption carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period was designed to further clarifying the key influencing factors. The results showed that energy intensity is the key influencing factor of energy-consumption carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. In order to achieve the target of carbon emission reduction in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, which is 0.67, it is critical to promote supply-side structural reform.