Carbon Emission Prediction of Civil Buildings in China based on Improved Grey Prediction Method

International Conference on Manufacturing Technology, Materials and Chemical Engineering

材料科学;化学工业

Yuan, J.B.^1 ; Liu, Y.S.^1 ; Xu, J.^1 ; Gao, S.H.^1 ; Li, X.T.^1

School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing

100044, China^1

关键词: Calculation models;    Carbon emission reductions;    Civil constructions;    Emission reduction targets;    Energy conservation and emission reductions;    Rural residential buildings;    Total amount of carbons;    Urban residential buildings;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/592/1/012138/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/592/1/012138

学科分类：材料科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Civil construction is an important source of carbon emissions. The implementation of total carbon emission control for civil buildings is an important means to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction in China. The study divides civil buildings into urban residential buildings, rural residential buildings, public buildings, and northern urban heating. The study calculates and predicts the total carbon emissions of China's civil buildings. Firstly, according to the statistical method of IPCC, the calculation model of carbon emissions of civil buildings is constructed, and the total amount of carbon emissions of civil buildings in China from 2005 to 2016 is calculated by using the energy balance table. Further, based on the improved grey prediction method, the national civil use from 2017 to 2025 is predicted. Total carbon emissions from construction. The forecast results show that in 2017-2025, the annual average carbon emission growth rate of buildings is about 4.65%, and by 2025, the total emission is expected to reach 298.176 million tons of CO2. In order to achieve the 2030 emission reduction target, it is necessary to further optimize the energy structure, improve the energy efficiency of the building, and increase the carbon emission reduction in civil construction.