System Dynamics Modeling of Indonesia Road Transportation Energy Demand and Scenario Analysis to achieve National Energy Policy Target

9th Annual Basic Science International Conference 2019

自然科学（总论）

Setiawan, I.C.^1^3 ; Indarto^1^2 ; Deendarlianto^1^2

Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering Gadjah Mada University, Jalan Grafika No.2, Yogyakarta

55281, Indonesia^1

Center for Energy Studies, Gadjah Mada University, Kampus UGM, Bulaksumur, Sekip Blok K 1A, Yogyakarta

55281, Indonesia^2

Department of Mechanical Engineering, Pancasila University, Jl. Borobudur No. 7 Menteng, Jakarta

10320, Indonesia^3

关键词: Business-as-usual;    National energy policy;    Reduce energy consumption;    Road transportation;    System dynamics model;    Technological improvements;    Transport demand management;    Transportation sector;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/546/5/052070/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/546/5/052070

学科分类：自然科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The Indonesian transportation sector is currently the nation's largest consumer of petroleum products and a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions overall. Many policies have been implemented by central and local governments, from the introduction of alternative fuels until demand management like odd-even policy; results, however, are in most cases disappointing. This paper explained a system dynamics model for the road transportation sector in Indonesia. The model considers basic policy options under Activity, Structure, Intensity, and Fuel (ASIF) framework and includes two main objectives, i.e., reduction of energy consumption and CO2 emission. Policy scenarios were developed to cover business as usual (REF), transport demand management (TDM), the introduction of fuel economy (FE) standard and feebate system (FEE), adoption of electric vehicles (EV) which considers future technological improvement factors and fuel switching strategy. The result indicates that it is mandatory to have a policy mix as the most effective strategy to reduce energy consumption, CO2 emission and achieve national energy mix target in 2050.