Forecasting of products' technical condition during the production process

International Workshop "Advanced Technologies in Material Science, Mechanical and Automation Engineering – MIP: Engineering – 2019"

材料科学;机械制造;原子能学

Vershinina, L.P.^1 ; Vershinin, M.I.^2

Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education, Saint-Petersburg State University of Aerospace Instrumentation, Bolshaya Morskaya 67 A, Saint-Petersburg

190000, Russia^1

Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education, Saint-Petersburg Mining University, 21st Line 2, Saint-Petersburg

199106, Russia^2

关键词: Forecasting modeling;    Heuristic approach;    Industrial product;    Production process;    Sources of uncertainty;    Technical conditions;    Technological process;    Theory of fuzzy sets;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/537/4/042014/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/537/4/042014

学科分类：材料科学（综合）

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

This article identifies the sources of uncertainty in the functioning of technological processes (TP) of manufacturing industrial products in science absorbing industry. The limitation of traditional statistical models' application for forecasting of industrial products' technical condition (TC) in the case of insufficiency and fuzziness of input data is shown. We have developed the forecasting model using the methods of the theory of fuzzy sets, combining a formal and heuristic approach. The model is adaptive to the change of TP characteristics. On the basis of the received forecasting of the TC it is possible to correct the TP parameters. The proposed approach for forecasting of industrial products' TC allows to provide the rational development and implementation of new technologies.