Characterizing mode choice behaviors of the evacuees during emergency evacuation using a Logistic regression model

8th Annual International Conference 2018 on Science and Engineering

工业技术（总论）

Sugiarto, S.^1 ; Lulusi^1 ; Isya, M.^1 ; Taufik^2 ; Haiqal, M.^3

Department of Civil Engineering, Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh, Indonesia^1

Alumni, Department of Civil Engineering, Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh, Indonesia^2

Architecture and Planning Department, Syiah Kuala University, Indonesia^3

关键词: Binary logistic regression;    Emergency evacuation;    Emerging countries;    Government employees;    Individual decision making;    Logistic Regression modeling;    Non-motorized modes;    Positive correlations;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/523/1/012032/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/523/1/012032

学科分类：工业工程学

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The most crucial transportation components in studying individual decision-making behavior are mode choice that used by evacuees. Especially in typical emerging countries which private motorized transport is mostly used in daily activities. Mode choice evacuation behavior is viewed as one of the essential aspects in a transportation disaster planning. This study is aiming to investigate an individual's preferences for selecting motorized and non-motorized modes for their evacuation during imaginary tsunami evacuation. The Stated Preference (SP) experimental data were collected in Kuta Raja sub-district, one of the most exposed sub-district in Banda Aceh. Binary logistic regression was conducted to evaluate the effects of several factors quantitatively and to identify the dominant factor that affected evacuation mode choice. The empirical result depicts that mode choice used by evacuee during an emergency evacuation is suggestively associated to the socio-demographic attributes such as male gender, age, government employee, low-income household, household member and motorcycle owned. It found that the medium-income households substantially rely on motorcycle mode for their evacuation. The more motorcycle owned within the household, the more likelihood of using motorcycle for their evacuation. The male gender and government employee also has a statistically positive correlation to the explanatory power of motorized transport used to evacuate.