Features of forecasting process in modern digital society

International Scientific Conference "Digital Transformation on Manufacturing, Infrastructure and Service"

Shamina, Lubov^1 ; Borisova, Iolanta^2 ; Syrneva, Elizaveta^1 ; Zdolnikova, Svetlana^3

Financial University, Government of the Russian Federation, Sjezhinskaya St. 15-17, St. Petersburg

197198, Russia^1

ITMO University, Kronverksky Pr., 49, St. Petersburg

197101, Russia^2

Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, Politechnicheskaya St., 29, St. Petersburg

195251, Russia^3

关键词: Cause and effects;    Criteria for evaluations;    Digital society;    Historical development;    Project activities;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/497/1/012091/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/497/1/012091

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Proceeding from a variety of decision-making approaches in the project management sphere, the authors have made a hypothesis that Foresight is the most perfect and effective technology of forecasting the future in modern realities. The following tasks have been set to prove the fidelity of this judgment: to analyze Foresight concept regarding application of this method, to allocate and describe the main stages of Foresight development and to establish regularity and the reasons of bifurcation of this method based on these stages, to prove the need of Foresight application in the modern world especially in the project management sphere. The authors have established two opposite approaches to perception of a complex of actions during the research, which make Foresight so necessary for project management: present-future and future-present. The deep analysis of historical development of Foresight has allowed establishing relationship of cause and effect of this phenomenon. The assessment of compatibility of methods of Foresight in a percentage ratio for successful implementation of the project was carried out on the basis of scientists' researches. Also, studying of this problem has shown that qualification and creativity are the main criteria for evaluation of efficiency when it comes to use of the whole complex of Foresight methods. This approach allows to optimize and rationalize project activities and to increase the general indicators of efficiency.