Correction of originality in cash flow forecasting to assess financial risk

International Scientific Conference "Digital Transformation on Manufacturing, Infrastructure and Service"

Lyukevich, Igor^1 ; Agranov, Anton^1

Peter the Great Saint Petersburg Polytechnic University, Politechnicheskaya st., 29, St. Petersburg

195251, Russia^1

关键词: Cash flow;    Cash-flow forecasts;    Exponential smoothing method;    Financial risks;    Forecasting accuracy;    Linear least squares;    Moving averages;    Polynomial functions;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/497/1/012058/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/497/1/012058

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Cash flow is featured by originality and, therefore, it is difficult in forecasting. The paper substantiates the significance, on the one hand, but also the difficulty in cash flow forecasting, on the other hand. The hypothesis was formulated that correction of originality in cash flow forecasting is possible with transition from absolute to relative forecast parameters. The cash flow forecast was made based on a linear least squares approximation. The hypothesis was proved using the second-rank polynomial function and moving average and exponential smoothing methods. It is concluded that the modification of forecasting by the polynomial function does not allow obtaining a reliable forecast. The required level of forecasting accuracy that is levelling of cash flow originality can be achieved using the methods of time-series analysis.