Methods and principles of forecasting risks of accidents on hazardous hydrotechnical objects

Hydraulics

Taranov, R.^1 ; Lebskaia, T.^1^2

Bauman Moscow State Technical University, 5 Second Baumanskaya Street, Moscow

105005, Russia^1

FSBI VNII GOCHs (FC), Moscow, Russia^2

关键词: Accident situation;    Emergency risk;    Forecasting methods;    Hydrotechnical;    Level of safeties;    Operating condition;    Risk forecasting;    Statistical datas;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/492/1/012010/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/492/1/012010

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

Risk analysis of accidents and emergencies on hazardous objects such as hydrotechnical objects is becoming increasingly important against the backdrop of annually increasing number of technological emergencies and significant increase of the damage they cause to the population and the environment. Methods of risk forecasting that take into consideration the object condition are highly important in this matter, but these methods have not been studied. Moreover, current forecasting methods do not take into consideration the change of object condition and its operating conditions over time. Hence creating modern approaches and methods of accident and emergency risk forecasting is an actual task aimed at increasing the level of safety for hazardous industrial objects. This paper deals with a method of forecasting accident situations and emergencies on hazardous industrial objects; the method takes into account the operating condition as well as the change of object condition, i.e. wear and tear. The presented method is a linear midterm forecast with the forecasting horizon of 1 to 5 years. The proposed method is based on the object condition statistical data. This methods can not only be used as a tool for forecasting and preventing accidents and emergencies at hazardous industrial objects, but also as a tool for optimizing expenses on developing industrial objects and ensuring its required level of safety for the population and environment.