Load Curve Modeling Based on Behavior Analysis of Distributed Power Customers

2019 4th Asia Conference on Power and Electrical Engineering

能源学;电工学

Han, Xinyang^1 ; Zhang, Yu^1 ; Jiao, Yuqiao^2^3 ; Zhang, Yue^1 ; Qu, Yanjing^4 ; Ding, Min^2^3

State Grid Energy Research Institute, Beijing

102200, China^1

School of Automation, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan

430074, China^2

Hubei Key Laboratory of Advanced Control and Intelligent Automation for Complex System, Wuhan

430074, China^3

State Grid Shanghai Municipal Electric Power Company, Shanghai

200122, China^4

关键词: Behavior analysis;    Customer behavior;    Distributed power;    Electrical appliances;    Load characteristics;    Markov chain Monte Carlo method;    Photovoltaic power generation;    Renewable power generation;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/486/1/012142/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/486/1/012142

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

As renewable power generation directly affects the customers' traditional electricity behavior and then offsets the power load, this paper proposes a load curve modeling method for renewable power customers based on the behavior analysis. Firstly, customers' active behavior is represented by the quantity of active customer households. Based on the analysis of customer behaviors, a modeling method for the quantity of active customer households is proposed based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. Then, with the inputs as the quantity of active customer households and time of photovoltaic power generation, an inference model based on fuzzy logic is proposed to get the quantity of customer household starting electrical appliances. By combing the average usage time of electrical appliances, load characteristics are analyzed based on usage state of electrical appliance of distributed power customers. Finally, the simulation results verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.