Risk Analysis for High Pressure Gas Pipeline Construction Schedule

3rd World Multidisciplinary Civil Engineering, Architecture, Urban Planning Symposium

土木建筑工程;文学

Bogucki, Michal^1 ; Polonski, Mieczyslaw^2

ILF Consulting Engineers Polska Sp. Z O.o., Osmaska 12, Warsaw

02-823, Poland^1

Warsaw University of Life Science-SGGW, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Nowoursynowska 159, Warsaw

02-776, Poland^2

关键词: Additional construction;    Construction method;    Construction schedules;    Construction works;    High pressure gas pipeline;    Project execution;    Risk Identification;    Sets of probabilities;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/471/11/112042/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/471/11/112042

学科分类：土木及结构工程学

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

In article authors focus on preparation of construction works schedule for high pressure gas pipeline in urbanized area and implementation of risk analysis in estimation of realistic completion date. In the first step, the pipeline was divided into couple of sections with different construction methods. During evaluation open cut methods, HDD and microtunneling methods were verified and for every approach specific types of risk were identified. Since number of potential risks was significant authors decided to apply the method for ranking the risks and introducing most important potential complications in the construction schedule. After risk identification authors prepared set of impact categories, varying for negligible few days delays to disastrous three months or more delays. Moreover for potential risks a list of probabilities were elaborated to described risk is plausible to happen several times during project execution or is rather likely to occur every couple of similar projects. Combination of sets of possible impacts and sets of probabilities resulted in a project specific risk matrix. Risk matrix was the first tool used for ranking of all risks, especially when regions of intolerable risks and risks requiring mitigation plan were drawn in the matrix. Based on professional literature, and their own experience for every potential risk, authors estimated the risk level. Knowing this in the next step all risks were sorted according to decreasing value of risk level and for risks within intolerable area or within area requiring emergency back-up plan. Authors verified if those plausible risks indeed require a schedule reserve or some other solution may be applied. If schedule reserve was a reasonable solution the relevant additional construction time was estimated, having in mind the schedule impact level of reviewed risk. In the end construction schedule was prepared, which includes the risk analysis for all construction methods.