Modelling and Forecasting of SO2 Concentration in Atmospheric Air _ A Case Study of the City of Krakow

3rd World Multidisciplinary Civil Engineering, Architecture, Urban Planning Symposium

土木建筑工程;文学

Skrobacki, Zbigniew^1 ; Dabek, Lidia Ewa^2 ; Lagowski, Piotr^1

Kielce University of Technology, Faculty of Mechatronics and Mechanical Engineering, Al. Tysiclecia Pastwa Polskiego 7, Poland^1

Kielce University of Technology, Faculty of Environmental, Geomatic and Energy Engineering, Al. Tysiclecia Pastwa Polskiego 7, Poland^2

关键词: Concentration statistics;    Cyclic variabilities;    Effect of the wind;    Measuring stations;    Modelling and forecasting;    Multiplicative model;    Time-series modelling;    Urban agglomerations;   

Others  :  https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/471/10/102057/pdf
DOI  :  10.1088/1757-899X/471/10/102057

学科分类：土木及结构工程学

来源: IOP

【 摘 要 】

The paper presents a statistical analysis of SO2 air concentration in Krakow for the period from 2007 to 2016. The source data were obtained from two measuring stations of the Provincial Environmental Protection Inspectorate in Krakow. SO2 concentration data had daily average values. The average monthly values and quarterly averages were used for the analysis. The analysis started with the determination of the trend function and the time series of the moving average. Then indices of monthly and quarterly changes were determined. Considering the whole period of ten years, a slight downward trend was noted, even though a somewhat rising trend was observed in the first five years. In Krakow, the level of sulphur dioxide pollution is approximately two to 2.5 times higher than in the least polluted area of the region the capital of which is Krakow. To create a mathematical model, the following two series were identified: cyclic variability and random variation. A multiplicative model composed of four components was obtained. This model interpolates the source data. The methodology of time series modelling was also applied to monthly and quarterly data. The wind directions prevailing in the city centre were also defined for the last four years. Statistical analysis and multiplicative models of SO2 variability for these directions were made. For each of the seven selected wind directions, the basic concentration statistics were determined and all components of the multiplicative models were identified. No significant effect of the wind direction on SO2 concentration in Krakow was observed. This allows formulating a hypothesis of the dominating impact of the relatively uniformly distributed local sources of surface emission on the magnitude of air pollution by sulphur dioxide in a large urban agglomeration, which is confirmed by some selected scientific sources. The models presented were used to obtain quarterly and monthly forecasts for SO2 concentrations in Krakow. The discussed methodology is universal and can be used in the study of variability and forecasting of concentrations of other air pollutants in other cities.