Regression Analysis for Testing Tornado Modeling Techniques

2009 Environmental System Research Institute International User Conference Proceedings and videos

Mary Sue Passe‐Smith, Lecturer

Others  :  http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc09/uc/papers/pap_1647.pdf
PID  :  50771

来源: CEUR

【 摘 要 】

ArcGIS 9.3’s new regression analysis tools were to be used to explore whether terrain features, especially valley orientation, of areas that experience more tornadoes can be successfully modeled for predictive purposes. Overcoming difficulty in operationalizing directionality is a prime task to be tackled. Past research has shown visual tendencies, and analysis of mean direction confirms, but incorporating this information in to a model has thus far been difficult. With the new regression tools, it is hoped that the effect of valley orientation versus storm travel direction can be effectively modeled. The regression tools, further, will allow for far more effective testing methods than in the past. The study area will be the high‐tornado state of Arkansas and low‐tornado portions of southernMissouri for good comparison of factors which encourage or inhibit tornado formation.