Causal Inference

Causality: Objectives and Assessment (NIPS 2008 Workshop)

Judea Pearl [e-mail]

PID  :  118477

来源: CEUR

【 摘 要 】

This paper reviews a theory of causal inference based on the Structural Causal Model (SCM) described in (Pearl, 2000a). The theory unifies the graphical, potentialoutcome (Neyman Rubin), decision analytical, and structural equation approaches to causation, and provides both a mathematical foundation and a friendly calculus for the analysis of causes and counterfac tuals. In particular, the paper establishes a methodology for inferring (from a combination of data and assumptions) the answers to three types of causal queries: (1) queries about the effect of potential interventions, (2) queries about counterfactuals, and (3) queries about the direct (or indirect) effect of one event on another.